Sunday, June 7, 2015

Silver proof sets, clad proof sets, or just mint sets?

The US Mint sells mint coin year sets by assembling all the coin variations issued during the year, packing them into plastic storage boxes (previously cellophane pockets), and charging a significant premium over the face values.  The mint sets are just new (a.k.a uncirculated) common coins, usually with P and D mint marks.  The coins in the proof sets are struck with higher pressure under a different manufacturing process, and they show much more details and brilliance.  So they are visually of higher quality and, not surprisingly, more expensive than the mint sets.  The silver version of the proof set is the most expensive of the three.  However, not all coins in the silver proof set are made of silver.  For example, in the recent years, the dollars and cents are made with the same materials as the clad proof sets.

Intuitively, silver coins are more value-preserving than the ordinary coins, and hence should be a better investment option.  The pricing data published by the well-respected United States Coins (the "red book") supports this hypothesis.  Uncirculated mint sets from 80's and 90's mostly have a reselling price well below the issuing price.  The situation improves only for those issued after 2000, mainly due to smaller mintage.  The observation is similar for clad proof sets, although the proof sets are of higher quality and supposedly lower mintage.  The silver proof sets, on the other hand, have shown strong performance consistently throughout the issuing history.  Many of them have the current reselling prices doubling or tripling the issuing prices.  Hence, though the silver proof sets are significantly more expensive to acquire, they are indeed better candidates for value appreciation.  However, if one does not care about value but just wants to collect the year sets themselves, the mint sets are a much more economical alternative.

Sunday, May 31, 2015

Evolution of the US Commemorative Yearbooks

USPS started issuing yearbooks for commemorative stamps from 1968.  Later on, the definitive versions were also issued for a few years from 1980 to 1990.  Since 2011 (if I recall correctly), the definitive stamps are included as "section 2" in the yearbook and are called "Mail-use Stamps". 

I collect yearbooks, for two basic reasons: First, they contain all the stamps officially issued in the respective years, so I don't have to research to find out which stamps actually form a complete year set.  Second, the albums have nice illustrations and descriptions of the background of the stamps.  It is simply enjoyable to just grab a yearbook on a Sunday afternoon and read in the couch.  They are usually more detailed and better illustrated than common stamp albums, like Scott and Mystic.

The format of the USPS yearbooks has evolved over the years, from simple, concise in the early years to "luxurious elaborating" more recently.  Up to 1981, the yearbook should be rather called a folder or panel, since it contains only one stock page at the center and descriptions on the two insides of the covers, as pictured below (the 1975 yearbook).  No mounts are used.  One problem is that as many of those yearbooks were manufactured decades ago, the plastic strips are often falling off the page, making some repair work necessary.


Starting from 1982, USPS provides mounts for the stamps included in the yearbook.  The collector needs to moisten the upper half back of the mounts, place the stamps into the mounts, and affix them into the designated places in the yearbook.  This is a better layout than the previous format, and the yearbooks are more aesthetically pleasant with the more detailed stories and pictures.  Up to 1991, the yearbooks are paperback and are housed in plain paper envelopes, although since 1986, the quality of the envelopes had been significantly upgraded.


The yearbooks from 1992 onwards are all in hardcover, much heavier than their predecessors.  They are also housed in dust covers of much better quality.  See pictures below for the 1999 yearbook.  If stamps were the primary pieces of the yearbooks in 70's and 80's, then the book itself has stolen the prime spot since 90's.  They are more like a commercial product than a collectible.  Accordingly, the price of a yearbook has been increasing steadily, from below $5 in early years (except the first three years) to around $140 in 2014 if you get all of the commemorative, definitive, and high-value stamps. 

Surprisingly, most of the earlier yearbooks can be acquired around issuing prices, or even below.  The ones from most recent years have been having steadily high reselling prices.  The only way to explain that is that USPS has issued way too many yearbooks in 70's and 80's, and to some extent, even 90's.

Sunday, May 3, 2015

The first blog

I am a data scientist by profession, but I have a fervent hobby which is perceived as "old" by many - stamp/coin collecting.  And, so here comes the name of this blog.  I will discuss my findings and questions in collecting the "collectibles" most of the time.  Sometimes, I may also post interesting little applications of quantitative methods for enhancing the experience of the hobby.

First observation of the day: In coin collecting (a.k.a. numismatics), collectors often like to preserve the original "government packaging" from US Mint - be it the modern hard plastic box or the old-fashioned cellophane pockets, when they acquire a yearly mint/proof set.  I have seldom seen people crack open the plastic box to take out the pristine uncirculated coins and put them into albums.  Album coins are usually of lower coinage grades (MS 60 or lower), i.e. circulated coins or uncirculated ones with many contact marks.  This appears reasonable due to the air exposure that the album coins are subject to.

Now, turning to stamping collecting (a.k.a. philately), the USPS also issues year sets, or more precisely, a fancy illustrated album book together with all the stamps (and mounts) published during the past year sealed in one plastic bag.  Here, whether or not to take out the stamps and mount them into your album really depends on whether you are a collector or more like a dealer.  For collectors like myself, I always mount the stamps so that I can enjoy the text and stamps in a nice presentation.  Moreover, for the sake of protecting the stamps from sticking with each others over time, it is also imperative to mount the stamps.  However, I have observed on eBay that buyers still prefer year sets that are sealed in original packaging, even though stamps do not have the oxidization problem as album coins.   Apart of the the buy-original-unopened mindset, there is another practical reason as far as I see it: Compared to coins, stamps pricing shows much variance, even for the same set of stamps at a given time.  Sometimes, it is even hard to be sure which stamps form the "complete set" for a year, due to additional souvenir sheets, sheetlets, and other variations.  The government packaged year set, on the other hand, has a known issue price and is supposedly to contain all the official issues in that year.  So, if I were the buyer, it would be an easier purchase for me too.